Daniel Kahneman, 78, is an Israeli-American psychologist specializing in the psy…
Daniel Kahneman, 78, is an Israeli-American psychologist specializing in the psychology of judgment and decision-making as well as behavioral economics. He is currently a senior scholar and emer itus professor at Princeton University. In 2002, Kahneman was awarded the Nobel prize in economics for his work on prospect theory, which helps explain the role biases play in decision-making. In 2011, he published a summary of much of his research in "Thinking, Fast and Slow,". Below are extracts of an interview that took place in May 2012.
DK:
"Psychologists distinguish between a "System 1" and a "System 2," which control our actions. System 1 represents what we may call intuition. It tirelessly provides us with quick impressions, intentions and feelings. System 2, on the other hand, represents reason, self-control and intelligence.
System 2 is the one who believes that it's making the decisions. But in reality, most of the time, System 1 is acting on its own, without your being aware of it. It's System 1 that decides whether you like a person, which thoughts or associations come to mind, and wha t you feel about something. All of this happens automatically. You can't help it, and yet you often base your decisions on it.
System 1 can never be switched off. You can't stop it from doing its thing. System 2, on the other hand, is lazy and only becomes active when necessary. Slow, deliberate thinking is hard work. It consumes chemical resources in the brain, and people usually don't like that. It's accompanied by physical arousal, increasing heart rate and blood pressure, activated sweat glands and dilated pupils.
The pupil normally fluctuates in size, mostly depending on incoming light. But, when you give someone a mental task, it widens and remains surprisingly stable — a strange circumstance that proved to be very useful to us. In fact, the pupils reflect the extent of mental effort in an incredibly precise way. I have never done any work in which the measurement is so precise.
Our intuition works very well for the most pa rt. But it's interesting to examine where it fails.
It depends on the field. In the stock market, for example, the predictions of experts are practically worthless. Anyone who wants to invest money is better off choosing index funds, which simply follow a certain stock index without any intervention of gifted stock pickers. Year after year, they perform better than 80 percent of the investment funds managed by highly paid specialists. Nevertheless, intuitively, we want to invest our money with somebody who appears to understand, even though the statistical evidence is plain that they are very unlikely to do so. Of course, there are fields in which expertise exists. This depends on two things: whether the domain is inherently predictable, and whether the expert has had sufficient experience to learn the regularities. The world of stock is inherently unpredictable.
A computer will be just as unreliable at predicting stock prices as a human be ing. And the political situation in 20 years is probably completely unpredictable; the world is simply too complex. However, computer models are good where things are relatively regular. Human judgment is easily influenced by circumstances and moods: Give a radiologist the same X-ray twice, and he'll often interpret it differently the second time. But with an algorithm, if you give it the same information twice, it will turn out the same answer twice.
The entertainment industry wastes a lot of money on films that don't work. It shouldn't be that difficult to develop a program that at least doesn't do any worse than the intuitive judgments that govern these decisions now.
So-called "evidence-based medicine" is making progress, and it's based on clear, replicable algorithms. Or take the oil industry. There are strict procedures on deciding whether or not to drill in a specific location. They have a set of questions that they ask, and then they measure. Relying on intuition would be far too error-prone. After all, the risks are high, and there is a lot of money at stake".
New swim buddies :-)
New swim buddies 
Féile Brian Ború’s Facebook Wall 2012-06-27 15:01:57
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Killaloe/Ballina Youth Initiative Events
Hi all ….. there are workshops happening at the Warehouse this week Thursday 28th 6p.m. -8.00p.m. Lantern Making with Nat and Friday 29th 2.00p.m. – 5.00p.m.Facepainting with Dee Would be great to see you there for the workshops and stuff made will be used in this years Pageant on Saturday evening….and face painters can come and facepaint pageant people! and of course you can join in the pageant!
This year’s Féile Brian Ború got off to a great start with Tommy Tiernan perform…
This year’s Féile Brian Ború got off to a great start with Tommy Tiernan performing a sellout show at the Lakeside Hotel on Thursday. Highlight of the first weekend in an action packed 10 day schedule was Sunday’s children’s parade. Hundreds of children from primary schools on both sides of the river came together during the week to craft costumes, and on Sunday, a river of colour and sound poured across the bridge. Also on Sunday, the Feile Feis was a busy day for dancers with some super performances given.
IMPORTANT NOTE: If there is a picture of you, or your child taking part in the Feile, which you would prefer we removed from our Facebook page – please let us know immediately and we will be happy to delete asap. Kind regards, Feile Brian Boru Social Media Team
2012 Féile Brian Ború Brings Colour and Sunshine
This year’s Féile Brian Ború got off to a great start with Tommy Tiernan performing a sellout show at the Lakeside Hotel on Thursday. Highlight of the first weekend in an action packed 10 day schedule was Sunday’s children’s parade. Hundreds of children from primary schools on both sides of the river came together during the week to craft costumes, and on Sunday, a river of colour and sound poured across the bridge. Also on Sunday, the Feile Feis was a busy day for dancers with some super performances given.
IMPORTANT NOTE: If there is a picture of you, or your child taking part in the Feile, which you would prefer we removed from our Facebook page – please let us know immediately and we will be happy to delete asap. Kind regards, Feile Brian Boru Social Media Team
Féile Brian Ború’s Facebook Wall 2012-06-27 14:15:14
2012 Féile Brian Ború Brings Colour and Sunshine to Killaloe and Ballina.
www.feilebrianboru.com
This year’s Féile Brian Ború got off to a great start with Tommy Tiernan performing a sellout show at the Lakeside Hotel on Thursday. Highlight of the first weekend in an action packed 10 day schedule was Sunday’s children’s parade. Hundreds of childre …
This evening's Féile Brian Ború include: Orchard Theatre Co’s underGROUND 8:00p…
This evening's Féile Brian Ború include:
Orchard Theatre Co’s underGROUND 8:00pm at the Pop-up Playhouse €10
Set Dancing at the Anchor Inn 9:00pm – Free
Féile Singing Club 9:30pm The Lakeside Hotel – Free
http://www.feilebrianboru.com/2012-events/wed-27th-june/
Wed 27th June
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R E M I N D E R……. CUSTOMER EVENING 6 – 8PM TODAY. DROP INTO OUR LIMERICK S…
R E M I N D E R……. CUSTOMER EVENING 6 – 8PM TODAY. DROP INTO OUR LIMERICK STORE WHERE YOU WILL ENJOY A UNIQUE SHOPPING EXPERIENCE, MASSIVE REDUCTIONS, BUY ONE/SECOND HALF PRICE OPTIONS AND A GLASS OF CHAMPAGNE THROWN IN!!!!!
SEE YOU LATER XX
Féile Brian Ború’s Facebook Wall 2012-06-27 08:28:35
Ring Buoy Throwing Competition
www.feilebrianboru.com
Fun and games at the newly revamped Ballina Outdoor Pool. All ages welcome!
Féile Brian Ború’s Facebook Wall 2012-06-27 08:27:56
Master Boot Camp
www.feilebrianboru.com
As part of our festival activities programme, come and try the master boot camp, for all fitness levels. Free of charge, kindly supported by the Lakeside Hotel & Leisure Centre.
Feile Brian Boru events for this evening include an evening of poetry and music…
Feile Brian Boru events for this evening include an evening of poetry and music with Austin Durack and Mike Durack from 8pm at Ponte Vecchio, in Liam O’Rians, Ballina, there will be a Traditional Pub Music Seisún from 9.30, these are both free events.
http://www.facebook.com/PonteVecchioKillaloe
Ponte Vecchio
Gourmet Italian Ingredients, imported direct from Italy. Artisan Italian cheeses and meats. Wine that you won't find on any other shelf, at excellent prices. Come in, grab a book and get comfortable, you won't want to leave!